Game theory

At the heart of non-cooperative game theory as it applies to playing poker is the concept that if you occasionally bluff, people will have to pay you off on your good hands. Game the­oretical analysis focuses on determining the correct bluffing frequency to maximize profits. In game theory models, when two actions have the same expected value, some randomizing method is often used to determine which one to choose. This is a reasonable theory for a mathematical model, but in re­ality, no two situations are ever the same. There is always information swaying you in one direction or another, and there is always an event history which includes plays that have been made on previous hands.

A good player bluffs based on:

1. Who he is playing against. Some opponents are more easily bluffed] than others.

2.      How strong he thinks his opponents hands are.

of his

bluff

3.     What he has represented up to this point about the strength own hand.

4.      Whether the opponent is in a calling mode. It is usually harder to a loser, although some may be easier to bluff because they don't to chase and lose again as they did on the last hand they played.

5.      His chances of winning without bluffing.

The amount that will he gained by a successful bluff 
 

7. The probability that his opponent will counter with a raise-bluff or a c h ec k-raise- b I u if.

S. The cards in his hand that his opponent would need to make a good hand.

9.   His perceived table image. If he bluffs too much, other players will tend to call him down.

10. Situational reasons, a) The opponent is short of money and doesn't have any more to rebuv. b) The opponent doesn't want to call with a weak hand and look stupid in front of a friend or backer who is watch­ing. c) In tournaments, it is easier to bluff right before a tournament break, immediately after the limits have been raised, or when there is a money increase for the next payout spot and the opponent is short on chips.

The same considerations apply when deciding whether to call with a weak hand if you think an opponent might be bluffing. Some players don't bluff in certain situations. For example, there are players who never raise- bluff. Other players must be called down with marginal hands due to the psychological state they are in.

When contemplating if you should call the final bet of a hand where you can only beat a bluff, you may make a pot-odds calculation. For ex­ample, in a limit game when you are getting 7 to 1 odds on a call, you might ask yourself ¡1 this opponent would try to bluff more than one time in eight if he didn't have a good hand. The answer will invari­ably be yes, but you must take into account that in many cases he is more than a 7 to 1 favorite to have a better hand than yours, based on the bet­ting at previous points of the hand.